May 8, 2013 Daily Analysis

There was no analysis written yesterday although I did track the pivot points.  Below is the chart to base the pivots off of for todays analysis as well as the pivots for tomorrow

	April	3-May	7-May	8-May
High	1594.25	1614.25	1621.75	1629.5
Low	1530.75	1573.75	1609.25	1617
Close	1594.00	1609	1621.25	1628.5
R3	1678.75	1664.75	1638.083	1645.5
Mid	1657.63	1652.125	1634	1641.5
R2	1636.50	1639.5	1629.917	1637.5
Mid	1625.88	1631.875	1627.75	1635.25
R1	1615.25	1624.25	1625.583	1633
Mid	1594.13	1611.625	1621.5	1629
Pivot	1573.00	1599	1617.417	1625
Mid	1562.38	1591.375	1615.25	1622.75
S1	1551.75	1583.75	1613.083	1620.5
Mid	1530.63	1571.125	1609	1616.5
S2	1509.50	1558.5	1604.917	1612.5
Mid	1498.88	1550.875	1602.75	1610.25
S3	1488.25	1543.25	1600.583	1608

The below chart shows the ES for today.  Notice how it started at the Pivot Point and went up to R2.  It was a good run from the pivot point to the R2. 

 

 

The ES is getting close to the R2 pivot on a monthly chart.  With the price running up so fast, there should be a swing back to more of the middle by the end of May.  Look for some correction.

May 6, 2013 Daily update

The pivot points for today for the S&P Futures were

	Monthly	Week
	April	3-May	3-May
High	1594.25	1614.25	1614.25
Low	1530.75	1573.75	1589.5
Close	1594.00	1609	1609
R3	1678.75	1664.75	1643.75
Mid	1657.63	1652.125	1636.375
R2	1636.50	1639.5	1629
Mid	1625.88	1631.875	1624
R1	1615.25	1624.25	1619
Mid	1594.13	1611.625	1611.625
Pivot	1573.00	1599	1604.25
Mid	1562.38	1591.375	1599.25
S1	1551.75	1583.75	1594.25
Mid	1530.63	1571.125	1586.875
S2	1509.50	1558.5	1579.5
Mid	1498.88	1550.875	1574.5
S3	1488.25	1543.25	1569.5

The R1 pivot point for the monthly was hit.  This was the pivot that dominated the day. The daily pivots were of no effect today.

 

Tomorrows pivot points are

	Monthly	Week
	April	3-May	6-May
High	1594.25	1614.25	1615.25
Low	1530.75	1573.75	1607.25
Close	1594.00	1609	1611.75
R3	1678.75	1664.75	1623.583
Mid	1657.63	1652.125	1621.5
R2	1636.50	1639.5	1619.417
Mid	1625.88	1631.875	1617.5
R1	1615.25	1624.25	1615.583
Mid	1594.13	1611.625	1613.5
Pivot	1573.00	1599	1611.417
Mid	1562.38	1591.375	1609.5
S1	1551.75	1583.75	1607.583
Mid	1530.63	1571.125	1605.5
S2	1509.50	1558.5	1603.417
Mid	1498.88	1550.875	1601.5
S3	1488.25	1543.25	1599.583

With the tight range today, it will be interesting to see how the Markets move. The R1 for both the Monthly and Daily, it will be hard to be broken.  I anticipate a down day tomorrow.   It may touch R1 and then move down.  I would expect the low to be around 1607. 

May 2, 2013 Daily Input

The S&P continues to show a bearish market.  The S&P has tried the 1600 level several times.  This may be a double top. Due to the time of year, a reversal is anticipated. 

 



The pivot points were not a clear method today to show an entry and exit strategy. 

Even the Squeeze was not successful in identifying a good entry level either. 

Looking at the Ticks really shows that the market was in an uptrend early.  That should have said go long.  I will also add the TICK to the mix of indicators to show that something may be trending.  It shows early in the day that the market was going up.

The pivot points for tomorrow are as follows.

	Week	Monthly
	26-Apr	April	2-May
High	1588.25	1594.25	1594.25
Low	1542.75	1530.75	1578.75
Close	1576.75	1594.00	1592.5
R3	1641.25	1678.75	1613.75
Mid	1628	1657.63	1608.875
R2	1614.75	1636.50	1604
Mid	1605.25	1625.88	1601.125
R1	1595.75	1615.25	1598.25
Mid	1582.5	1594.13	1593.375
Pivot	1569.25	1573.00	1588.5
Mid	1559.75	1562.38	1585.625
S1	1550.25	1551.75	1582.75
Mid	1537	1530.63	1577.875
S2	1523.75	1509.50	1573
Mid	1514.25	1498.88	1570.125
S3	1504.75	1488.25	1567.25

May 1, 2013 Daily update

The markets are still in a Bullish mode.  Even though the day was a down day, it is not enough to change the Bullish mode.

 

Looking at the charts, there are 3 that help tell a full story.

 

1)  The moving average 8, 21, 200 shows that the day is in a bearish mode.  The Stochastics and MACD should be added to this chart.

 

 

2) The regular pivot point chart to set targets

 3)  The Squeeze in order to see when consolidation is occurring.

 

The Pivot Points for tomorrow are

	Week	Monthly
	26-Apr	April	1-May
High	1588.25	1594.25	1595.5
Low	1542.75	1530.75	1576
Close	1576.75	1594.00	1578.75
R3	1641.25	1678.75	1610.333
Mid	1628	1657.63	1606.625
R2	1614.75	1636.50	1602.917
Mid	1605.25	1625.88	1596.875
R1	1595.75	1615.25	1590.833
Mid	1582.5	1594.13	1587.125
Pivot	1569.25	1573.00	1583.417
Mid	1559.75	1562.38	1577.375
S1	1550.25	1551.75	1571.333
Mid	1537	1530.63	1567.625
S2	1523.75	1509.50	1563.917
Mid	1514.25	1498.88	1557.875
S3	1504.75	1488.25	1551.833



April 30, 2013

The trend is still Bearish on all time frames.  The pivot points would not have worked as well today because the futures primarily traded between R1 and R2.

April 29, 2013 Market Overview and Pivot Play

 The daily S&P chart still shows that the market is in  a bullish market.  The Stochastics have turned upward as well as the MACD is crossing over on a daily basis.  The price is also above the 8 and 21 day moving average

 On the 5 minute chart it was a good day to be long.  You could get in at each of the pull backs to  the 8 period moving average and it matched the 21 period meoving average.

 

The final piece of the puzzle that is interesting is that the futures started out at the pivot point. Several hours before the opening it went to R1 and then right after trading it went to R2 and finally stopped at R3 before turning back down.  The volume was high to start with, but price continued to trend upward all day.  The high volume shows it will be a trending day to start with.

 

Pivot Play 26 April 2013

I am starting to look at different strategies that I could use if I wanted to start day trading.  My life as a SW manager may be coming to an end, and I am looking for other opportunities.  With that, I watched the S&P today and put the pivot points on the chart.  After the first half hour, the price crossed R1.  Opportunity to short it.  When it crossed the pivot, sell half the order and move stop between R1 and Pivot Point with a target of S1.  After it hits S1 reverse the trade and go long, once again sell half at the pivot point and let the stock run to the target at R1.  This is a very classic chart.  I don't believe all will be like it, but I am going to watch it every day for a month to see if I could be successful with this strategy. 

26 April 2013 Weekly Analysis

 The S&P on a weekly basis still shows it is bullish.  The concern is that the stochastic has crossed and the MACD is about ready to.  If that happens then S&P will be mid term bearish. 

The Russell Index is the most telling.  The price is between the 8 day and 21 day moving average for the week.  Also the Stochastics have turned as well as the MACD.  This is starting to show weakness in the market.

26 April 2013 Daily Analysis

 The S&P is still looking bullish.  The MACD crossed over again this week to be bullish.  The Stochastics are looking the same way.  The price is still above the 8 day moving average and the 21 day moving average.

 

The Russell index is also showing that it wants to go back to a bullish mode.  I am concerned with the downturn a few several weeks ago and not being able to make a higher high yet.  Next week will tell if it will turn up.  The indicators still show it is very oversold.